Wednesday, January 12

2011 NFL Divisional Picks

Yikes. Last week I was 1-3. Some of my predictions and impact players were right on the money. Some were dead wrong. Chiefs! The letters “w – t – f” were invented to describe what happened at Arrowhead last week. Nobody really believed you were a playoff team. Way to prove them absolutely correct. Has any playoff team ever won two straight games being a double digit underdog in both? How ‘bout making some history, Seattle.

This week is all about redemption . . . and POINTS. I’m taking the points in all 4 games.

All lines come from Danny Sheridan from the USA Today as of 1/12/11. Home team in CAPS.


STEELERS (-3 ½) vs. Ravens

Does anyone really know how this game is going to play out? Playing a playoff game in Pittsburgh is dangerous for any road team. The Ravens held the ball for 42 minutes and only gave up 8 first downs against the Chiefs last week. They did this with “no shows” out of Mason and Houshmandzadeh. Flacco only had 7 completions to his wide receivers against the Chiefs. He needs to get them involved. They’re going to have to be able to stretch the field against the Steelers. Don’t look for Todd Heap to have another 10 catch game. The Chief’s safeties were playing in the parking lot last week. Polamalu won’t be.

Both teams will want to run the ball. Both teams have excellent run defenses. This game will come down to a third down conversion here, a missed field goal there. I’m not sure who wins, but I do think it will be closer than 3 points. I’ll take the Ravens and the points.

Impact player for STEELERS: Mike Wallace
Impact player for RAVENS: Ed Reed

PICK: RAVENS (+3 ½)




FALCONS (-2) vs. Packers

The winner of this game is looking like the Super Bowl favorite for the NFC. Atlanta is near impossible to beat at home. They have big time players at the right positions (Ryan, Turner and White). Is it possible their eyes lit up when the Saints got beat last week and they’re now thinking their run to the Super Bowl just got that much easier? Don’t overlook the Packers.

I’m sticking by my claim that Aaron Rodgers will continue to rise to the top as the playoffs continue. If James Starks can come close to duplicating his performance from last week the Packers are going to be in excellent shape.

Packers cover. Packers win. I believe they are Super Bowl bound.


Impact player for FALCONS: Roddy White
Impact player for PACKERS: Aaron Rodgers (It’s obvious, I know. . . but it’s true)

PICK: PACKERS (+2)




BEARS (-10) vs. Seahawks

10 points? Do I fall for this again? I predict that one of these teams totally underperforms in this game. I mean epically underperforms (think Chiefs last week). I just don’t know which one. Will Cutler show his true colors? Can the Bears D propel them to the NFC Championship game? Will Seattle continue to live on a wing and prayer? I think the Packers/Falcons game on Saturday night will have everything to do with this game. If the Packers win the Seahawks know they’ll be hosting the NFC Championship game with a victory. Since I am picking a Packers win, I have to go along with that rationale.

I’m just not feeling the Bears (sorry Joe). I don’t love their ground game, their receivers are below average and their quarterback is capable of throwing 3 interceptions faster than Snooki can down a bottle of Goldschlager.

Did you know that all nine of the Seahawks losses were by more than two touchdowns? (17, 17, 30, 34, 15, 18, 19, 16 and 23 points) This means we should have a pretty good idea by halftime if the Seahawks are going to win this game (or at least cover).

Get ‘em fired up, Pete Carroll. If you win this game I may start taking your coaching abilities a little more seriously. It’ll take a while to wash that Trojan stink off of you.

Impact player for BEARS: Matt Forte
Impact player for SEAHAWKS: Marcus Trufant (He had only one INT this season. I think he gets at least one in this game.)

PICK: SEAHAWKS (+10)




PATRIOTS (-9) vs. Jets

If I wasn’t a Cowboy’s fan, I’d be a Patriots fan. I love everything about them. Brady is precision personified. They have scrappy “no name” players on offense and defense that find a way to get the job done. They are the perfect football machine.

The only thing I can see working against the Patriots is the two week break. I know it gives them the opportunity to rest up and get healthy. It also gives them the opportunity to fall out of the ass-whoopin’ gear they’ve been stuck in.

I wonder if the Jets are still chewing on the 45-3 debacle handed to them by the Patriots last month. If I’m Rex Ryan I’d have this game streamlined into the home of every Jets player. Put it on every channel. Just loop it over and over and over again. Why not?

Like always the Jets need to run the ball effectively and they need to have Sanchez channel is inner Ken O’Brien to play an above average game.

I like the Patriots in this game BUT I think 9 points is too many for a Jets team hell bent on sticking it to Brady and Belichick. I’ll take the points.


Impact player for PATRIOTS: Rob Gronkowski
Impact player for JETS: Shonn Greene

PICK: JETS (+9)

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